2027 Lithuanian Tornado Disaster
|type = F5 tornado|tornado season = Eastern European tornado outbreak of May 7 - 9, 2027|date = May 7, 2027|times = 7:29 a.m. EEST (UTC+03:00) - 10:47 a.m. EEST (UTC+03:00)|image location = EF5 Moore tornado.png|touchdown = 15 kilometers west-southwest of Suwalki, Poland|winds = 278 ± 5 mph (447 ± 8 km/h) (as measured by Doppler radar)|injuries = > 10,000|fatalities = 1784|damage = > $2.9 billion (2027 USD) (costliest tornado in European history)|areas = Podlaskie Voivodeship (Poland), Alytus County, Vilnius County (Lithuania), Grodno Region, Vitebsk Region (Belarus)|image caption = The tornado near its peak intensity, at 9:25 AM EEST (6:25 AM UTC)}}The 2027 Lithuanian Tornado Disaster '''(also known as the Black Friday of 2027 to Lithuanians) was a catastrophic F5-rated tornado that struck multiple cities in Northeastern Europe, most notably Vilnius at its peak intensity, and became the costliest and deadliest European tornado on record, resulting in over $2.9 billion in damages and 1784 deaths, with its extremely long track of 262 km (163 miles). This tornado was part of a larger tornado outbreak, that produced 17 tornadoes over the territories of Russia, Poland, Lithuania, and Belarus, between May 7th and May 9th of 2027. The tornado touched down 15 kilometres west-southwest of the city of Suwałki in Podlaskie Voivodeship, Poland, at 07:29 EEST (04:29 UTC), and stayed on the ground for 3 hours and 18 minutes over a 262 km (163 mile) long path, crossing through three countries, and numerous cities, including Vilnius. The tornado's peak width occured in Belarus while it was weakening, and was 3.5 kilometres (2.2 miles) wide. Its peak winds occurred just before it struck central Vilnius, at 9:27 AM EEST (6:27 AM UTC). It tracked through areas unprepared for tornadoes such as this, and overall, caused devastating damage, and a high death count highly influenced by the lack of tornado situational training and tornado shelters. Meteorological synopsis In early May, a warm dry front from southern Europe collided with a cool moist front from Scandinavia. The collision of fronts resulted in conditions favorable for thunderstorm formation, and extremely high CAPE values of 4000 - 5000 J/kg with high upper shear meant that there was a high chance of supercell formation. The storm system that eventually resulted in the outbreak started forming late on May 6th, over the southern Baltic Sea, and moved generally east-northeast until it died out late on May 9th over northeastern Belarus and southwestern Russia. Probabilities of tornadic formation were not issued by any official weather agency, however unofficial agencies issued a peak tornadic formation probability of 60%. Storm development and track The thunderstorm that eventually produced the tornado developed at around 4:30 AM EEST, south of Ilawa city in the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship. It moved generally northeast, developing pronounced rotation on radar, and crossed Poland for the next 3 hours. Over these 3 hours, the thunderstorm became a supercell, and eventually storm spotters reported a large wall cloud and a rear-flank downdraft. TORRO reported the thunderstorm to be a "certain tornado producing thunderstorm" as it had very favorable conditions to do so. At 7:29 AM EEST (4:29 AM UTC), the tornado touched down in Podlaskie Voivodeship, 15 kilometres west-southwest of the city of Suwałki, and became the first confirmed tornado of the outbreak sequence. The 250-metre wide stovepipe F0 tornado quickly intensified into an F1 and moved through southern Suwałki city, causing moderate damage. After moving through Suwałki, the tornado weakened back to an F0 while starting to widen. At around 8 AM, north of Sejny, the tornado began producing F1 damage again, and F2 damage was found almost exactly on the Polish - Lithuanian border. After crossing into Lithuania, the now 1-kilometre wide F2 tornado passed through the town of Lazdijai, severely damaging several Soviet-era apartment blocks. After that, the tornado became an F3 and passed over the lakes Dusia and Metelys. At around 8:35 AM, the city of Alytus was struck by the F3 wedge tornado, and suffered severe damage, with some apartment blocks suffering partial collapse, and numerous private homes being completely destroyed. Up to that point, the tornado had caused $315 million in damages, and resulted in 127 deaths. '''The text of the warning, in Lithuanian 08:40 LIETUVOS LAIKU (05:30 UTC LAIKU) 2027, GEGUŽĖS 7 D, PENKTADIENIS LHMT IR VPGT ĮSPĖJA: PER ŠALĮ SLENKA PAVOJINGA PERKUNIJŲ BANGA, GALINTI SUKELTI GALINGUS VIESULUS STIPRUS VIESULAS KURIS SUKĖLĖ DIDELĘ ŽALĄ ALYTAUS MIESTE KELIA PAVOJŲ VISOMS SAVIVALDYBĖMS Į ŠIAURĖS RYTUS NUO ALYTAUS. ALYTAUS MIESTE IR RAJONE, TRAKUOSE, ELEKTRĖNUOSE, VILNIAUS MIESTE IR RAJONE, ŠIRVINTOSE, MOLĖTUOSE, ŠVENČIONYSE, IGNALINOJE, IR VISAGINO MIESTE, YRA SKELBIAMA NEPAPRASTA PADĖTIS. GYVENTOJAI ŠIOSE SAVIVALDYBĖSE TURI SUSIRASTI VIETĄ RŪSYJE ARBA ŽEMIAUSIAME NAMO AUKŠTE, TARP KUO DAUGIAU SIENŲ, IR SLĖPTIS NUO VIESULO, ARBA EVAKUOTIS JEI GALIMA. ĮSPĖJIMAS GALIOJA IKI 10:40 LIETUVOS LAIKU BET GALI BŪTI PRATĘSTAS. VISOS VIEŠOSIOS DARBOVIETĖS IR ĮSTAIGOS UŽDARYTOS ARBA AVARINIO ATVĖJO RĖŽIME. The text of the warning, translated to English 08:40 LITHUANIAN TIME (05:30 UTC) 2027, MAY 7TH DAY, FRIDAY LHMT AND VPGT WARN: THERE IS A WAVE OF DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE COUNTRY, WHICH CAN CAUSE STRONG TORNADOES A STRONG TORNADO WHICH CAUSED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGES IN ALYTUS CITY IS CAUSING DANGER TO ALL MUNICIPALITIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF ALYTUS. ALYTUS CITY AND DISTRICT, TRAKAI, ELEKTRĖNAI, VILNIUS CITY AND DISTRICT, ŠIRVINTOS, MOLĖTAI, ŠVENČIONYS, IGNALINA, AND VISAGINAS CITY ARE DECLARING A STATUS OF EMERGENCY. INHABITANTS IN THESE MUNICIPALITIES HAVE TO FIND A PLACE IN THE BASEMENT OR THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING, BETWEEN AS MANY WALLS AS POSSIBLE, AND SHELTER FROM THE TORNADO, OR EVACUATE IF POSSIBLE. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10:40 LITHUANIAN TIME BUT CAN BE EXTENDED ALL PUBLIC WORKPLACES AND PLACES ARE CLOSED OR IN EMERGENCY MODE. After the reports of an extremely damaging tornado to the emergency services reached well into the tens of thousands, civil defense sirens were sounded all over Vilnius county, and an official warning, the first of its kind, was broadcasted over television, radio, and text messages. Overall, it is estimated that at least 700 thousand people received the warning, greatly reducing the eventual death and injury count. As the tornado crossed over plains, it briefly weakened to an F2, but by 9 AM had intensified to an F4 wedge tornado. At 9:10 AM, while the tornado was affecting the A16 highway with its very edge, the first F5 damages were recorded, with severe ground scouring and homes completely swept away. At around 9:15 AM, the edge of the tornado affected the city of Trakai, while the tornado weakened to an F4 while crossing the A16 highway. 9 deaths and $20 million in damages were recorded in the general area. The tornado was for a short time an F4, before restrengthening to an F5 at 9:20 AM, just before hitting the A1 highway. There, it lifted numerous cars and carried some kilometers away. By 9:25 AM, the tornado had produced F4 and F5 damages to the city itself, while crossing Oslo street. While in Vilnius, the tornado passed over the Lazdynai, Naujamiestis, and Žvėrynas districts, before passing almost straight over the city center in the old town at 9:30 AM. After that, Užupis, Šnipiškės, and Žirmūnai districts were struck. All affected districts in Vilnius city had F5 damage in them as the tornado passed right through the center of the city as a 3 kilometer (1.9 mile) wide F5 wedge tornado. Many hundreds of buildings, including almost two hundred concrete panel buildings, were severely or completely destroyed. Out of the 1784 total deaths from the tornado, 1614 occurred in Vilnius city, as well as over 10 thousand injuries, and over $2.465 billion in damages, heavily damaging the Lithuanian economy. At around 9:40 AM, after leaving Vilnius city, the tornado weakened to an F4 again, and began to decrease in width. The tornado had no problems clearing a path kilometers wide through a forest, and continued weakening as it approached the Belarus border. By 10 AM, the tornado had crossed the border, and became the most powerful tornado in the country's history, as it still was a wide F4 tornado for a few minutes in Belarus. Afterwards, it continued to weaken, becoming an F3 just a few minutes after crossing the border, and an F2 by 10:15 AM. However, it started to widen again, and became an F1 by 10:20 AM, still widening. At around 10:30 AM, it weakened to an F0 tornado, but also peaked in width - at 3.5 kilometres (2.2 miles) wide. By 10:40 AM, it had reduced in width substantially, and by 10:45 AM, was just a weak rope F0 tornado, finally lifting off the ground at 10:47 AM, finishing off its 262 km (163 mile), 3 hour and 18 minute long track. From Vilnius to dissipation, the tornado resulted in $100 million in damage, and 34 deaths. Its parent thunderstorm continued moving in the general direction of east-northeast, until dissipating in Russia a few hours later. Impact The TORRO research organization and the Lithuanian government both report total death and damage figures of 1784 and > $2.9 billion over all affected countries, respectively. Over two thousand buildings were severely damaged or destroyed. The number of injuries overall is over 10 thousand. Entire districts of Vilnius were heavily devastated, as well as almost the entirety of Alytus city. Thousands upon thousands of emergency calls were received in the time the tornado existed. In Podlaskie Voivodeship, especially Suwałki, the tornado caused minor to moderate damages as an F0 to F1 tornado, including damaging roofs, ripping tree branches, and smashing car windows. The tornado also lifted large amounts of dry dust into the air. In Southern Lithuania, the tornado passed through the city of Lazdijai, severely damaging several Soviet-era apartment buildings there as well as many individual houses. Then the tornado passed through the city of Alytus, inflicting F3 damage on almost the entire city, partially collapsing several concrete panel buildings and destroying numerous private homes. The hardest hit areas were Trakai and Vilnius - both received F5 winds to some degree. In Trakai's outer parts, the tornado shred several private homes to pieces, completely clearing their foundations, as well as threw several entire trees around. In Vilnius city proper, several blocks of concrete apartment buildings were severely damaged or entirely destroyed, prompting a medium F5 rating for the tornado. Cars were found thrown over a mile (1.6 km) from their original locations. Private homes were once again completely cleared from their foundations, and many trees were severely debarked. A steel reinforced mall was found completely collapsed, which indicated possible winds of up to 300 mph. After Vilnius, the tornado did not strike major population centers, however it did continue to show some ground scouring all the way to the Belarusian border. Several forests were found to have a wide clearing in them, likely caused by the F4 winds of the tornado. In Belarus, pieces of a tree were found over 16 kilometers (10 miles) away. As the tornado weakened, so did the damage, and eventually the tornado's damage was no longer discernible. With 1784 confirmed deaths over the three countries it struck, the 2027 Lithuania tornado is the deadliest tornado in European and world history. However, the death toll could be considered even higher, since some organizations suspect that the Belarusian death toll was severely underestimated, considering the country's aging infrastructure and lack of warning. Aftermath A state of emergency was declared in Lithuania at 9:30 AM, the first time in history Lithuania declared nationwide emergency because of weather. Lithuania, as well as several other countries deployed search and rescue teams to the affected areas. Many EU countries sent assistance in terms of food and funds. The next day, an Europe-wide moment of silence was held for all victims of the tornado. The United Nations offered assistance with recovery. The day after the tornado, the Lithuanian capital was temporarily moved from Vilnius to Kaunas. The long term economic impact on Lithuania is expected to exceed $10 billion (2027). The unprecedented tornado set into motion several changes. First of all, a united European severe weather warning system was mandated by 2030, which would ensure that every country could receive warnings from other countries about severe weather, especially tornadoes. Second of all, EU-wide legislation mandated that all new government owned buildings had to resist F4 winds sustained for 30 minutes. Third of all, an EU-wide Doppler radar system was installed to improve tornado predictability by radar. Fourth of all, all forecasters in the EU had to receive tornado recognition training. And fifth of all, an EU-wide official team of weather spotters was established, as well as an EU-wide database of every single tornado officially confirmed within the union. Within Lithuania, a national law was passed which required every new housing project to have a storm shelter, and every village of above 100 inhabitants to have general warning sirens. Category:Deadly Tornadoes Category:Costly Tornadoes Category:Tornadoes of 2027 Category:European Tornadoes Category:F5/EF5 Tornadoes Category:Violent Tornadoes Category:Catastrophic Tornadoes Category:Lithuanian Tornadoes